石家庄昼夜温差与儿童哮喘就诊人数的关联

摘要

In order to understand the influence of diurnal temperature range (DTR) on childhood asthma,the 0-14 years old outpatients who had childhood asthma from 2012 to 2015 and the corresponding air temperature data of Shijiazhuang were used to analyze the exposure and response relation between them by applying generalized additive model (GAM) based on time series after controlling the cocktail effect of seasonal variation,holiday effect,air pressure,wind speed and relative humidity.The results show that diurnal temperature range had a "U" relationship with childhood asthma,the total number of childhood asthma increased 1.4％ with air temperature increasing 1 ℃ when DTR was more than 8.8 ℃.Children of different ages were affected by DTR difference,the effect of DTR on childhood asthma outpatients who were 0-6 years old presented "U" distribution.However,when DTR increased,the number of 7-14 years old outpatients also increased.When DTR was more than 14.9 ℃,with DTR increase every 1 ℃,the relative risk degree of the number of childhood asthma outpatients was 1.045,and the number of childhood asthma clinics would increase by 4.5％.%为了解昼夜温差对儿童哮喘的影响关系,采用基于时间序列的广义相加模型(GAM),在控制季节变化、节假日效应、气压、风速、相对湿度混杂效应后,分析2012-2015年石家庄地区昼夜温差与0 ～14岁儿童哮喘门诊日就诊人数的时间序列关系.结果发现:昼夜温差与儿童哮喘门诊就诊人数呈“U”型关系,当DTR＞ 8.8℃时,随着DTR每上升1℃,儿童哮喘就诊总人数将增加1.4％;0～6岁、7～ 14岁不同年龄段儿童受昼夜温差的影响不同,0～6岁幼儿呈“U”型变化关系,而7～14岁少儿哮喘就诊人数随昼夜温差的增大总体上呈增加趋势;当DTR＞ 14.9℃时,少儿哮喘门诊就诊人数的相对危险度(RR)为1.045,随着DTR每上升1℃,少儿哮喘门诊就诊人数将增加4.5％,增加更为显著.