用层次分析法确定气象服务评价指标权重

摘要

With the rapid development of social economy in China,the demand for meteorological service keeps growing,and the evaluation for meteorological service satisfaction becomes more important.The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)method is used to evaluate the meteorological service satisfaction objectively, and constructing judgment matrix of good consistency is the key to use AHP. Two scales of AHP are used to construct judgment matrix of good consistency,and then weight coef-ficients can be calculated and the meteorological service can be evaluated.In the assessment system of me-teorological service,using overall evaluation of meteorological services as the target layer,the first-grade and the second-grade evaluation indicators are composed.With the survey data of public satisfaction to me-teorological services of 2010,1-9 methods of scale and 0.618 methods of scale in AHP are applied to es-tablish the judgment matrices.It is found that for the judgment matrix with less than 5 evaluation indica-tors,1-9 methods of scale can be used;but for the judgment matrix with 5 evaluation indicators or more, 0.618 methods of scale should be used to calculate coefficients.The method is used in processing survey data of 2011,and coefficients for the first-grade and the second-grade evaluation indicators are calculated rapidly.The main value changes between two years are compared.Among weight coefficients for the first-grade,the value of meteorological information service contents increases while the value of meteorological knowledge propaganda and popularization decreases,which illustrates that the public pays more attention to the meteorological service contents and the meteorological department has achieved certain results in the meteorological knowledge propaganda and popularization.There is no obvious tendency change among val-ues of the second-grade evaluation indicators.All judgment matrices pass the comparison matrix consisten-cy tests,proving that the principle of judgment matrix construction is reasonable,effective and useful.%在气象服务评价体系中，以气象服务总体评价为目标层，分层次确立一级和二级评价指标，利用2010年全国公众气象服务满意度调查中评价指标数据，应用层次分析法（AHP）中的9分位标度法和0．618标度法来构建判断矩阵，分析了各级评价指标的权重系数确定方法。分析发现，当评价指标少于5个时，可采用9分位标度法构建判断矩阵，以确定各评价指标的权重值；而当评价指标达到5个时，需采用0．618标度法来构建判断矩阵，计算出相应的权向量即为权重系数。将上述方法应用于2011年公众气象服务满意度调查数据中，前后两年主要评价指标对比显示，气象服务信息内容的权重在增加，而气象知识宣传普及的权重有所减小，即公众对于气象服务信息内容更为重视，同时气象部门对于公众的气象知识宣传普及工作也取得了成效。