日益增长的人口及生存环境问题已经成为人类社会生存与可持续发展的关键,人口承载力是区域生态承载力的重要指标.基于辽宁省1997～2006年10 km×10 km分辨率的气象资料,通过自然植被净第一性生产力模型和农业生产力模型计算(农田、草地和湿地)生产力及其动态.结果表明,辽宁省近10年来年均气温呈略下降趋势,年降水量呈增加趋势.1997～2006年辽宁省植被年均总净第一性生产力为(农田、草地和湿地)3.63×10~7 t/a,其中农田、草地和湿地分别为2.18×10~7、0.99×10~7和0.46×10~7 t/a.应用人口承载力模型计算出在宽裕型、小康型和富裕型3种消费水平下辽宁省1997～2006年的年均总人口承载力分别为2 226.9万人、2 035.3万人和2 015.1万人.%Rapid growing population and environmental issues have been key problems for the living and sustainable of human. Population carrying capacity is an important index for the regional ecological carrying capacity. Based on the meteorological data (with the resolution of 10 km × 10 km)in Liaoning Province from 1997 to 2006,the productivity (farmland,grassland and wetland) and its dynamics were calculated by using natural vegetation NPP model and agricultural productivity model. It was pointed out that the annual mean temperature showed a slightly decrease trend and the precipitation showed an increase trend. Total mean annual NPP of vegetation (farmland, grassland and wetland) in Liaoning Province from 1997 to 2006 was 3.63 × 10~7 t/a, and that of farmland, grassland and wetland was 2. 18 ×10~7, 0.99× 10~7 and 0.46 ×10~7 t/a respectively. Using the population carrying capacity model, total mean annual population carrying capacities in Liaoning Province from 1997 to 2006 under the consumption levels of well-off, comparatively well-off and surplus consumption were 2 226.9,2 035. 3 and 2 015.1 ten thousand people respectively.
展开▼
