2010年7月吉林省暴雨诊断分析和水汽后向轨迹模拟

摘要

[Objective ] The research aimed to analyse the rainstorm process and backward trajectory simulation of water vapor condition in Ji lin Province in July, 2010. [Method] Based on the actual-situation data of routine weather map, NCEP (2-5°×2.5°) reanalysis data one times per 6 h and GBL data of NOAA, the rainstorm process was carried out the diagnostic analysis of physical quantity in Jilin Province in Ju ly, 2010. Moreover, the backward trajectory mode (HYSPLIT) was used to simulate the water vapor source. [Result] The coexistence of up per - level divergence and low - level convergence generated the ascending motion, which was the dynamic condition of rainstorm appearance. The unstable energy induced by the low - level shear promoted the generation of heavy rainstorm. The water vapor source of precipitation process was divided into the water vapor in the southern sea, northern high - altitude water vapor transportation and local water vapor source. [ Conclusion ] The research provided some reference basis for the forecast and analysis of rainstorm.%[目的]分析2010年7月吉林省暴雨过程和水汽条件后向轨迹模拟.[方法]利用常规天气图实况资料和NCEP每6 h一次、2.5°×2.5°再分析资料及NOAA的GBL资料,对2010年7月导致吉林省洪水的暴雨过程进行物理量诊断分析,同时使用HYSPLIT后向轨迹模式对水汽来源进行模拟.[结果]高空辐散和低空辐合同时存在产生的上升运动是暴雨出现的动力条件；低空切变诱发的不稳定能量促使了大暴雨过程的产生；此次降水过程的水汽来源分为南部海域的水汽、北部高空的水汽输送和当地水汽源3个部分.[结论]该研究为暴雨的预报和分析提供一些参考依据.