新泰市气候变化及其对种植业的影响

摘要

[目的]研究新泰市气候变化特征及其对种植业的影响.[方法]利用新泰市1957 ～2009年逐年、月平均气温、降水量、初霜日、终霜日、无霜期、日照时数等气象资料,分析了新泰市近53年的气候变化特征及其对种植业的影响.[结果]新泰市气温在波动中上升,暖冬现象突出,≥0℃积温逐年增多,近10年来初霜推迟、终霜提前、作物生长季延长；年降水量在波动中减少,年日照时数总体呈减少趋势.由于积温的增加,无霜期的延长,使新泰市主要农作物的播种期、耕作制度发生变化,冬季气温的升高,有利于温室大棚等设施农业的发展,复种指数有所提高,特色种植优势突出；气候变暖使黄姜、黄花菜种植面积扩大,种植界限北移,小麦、花生播种期推迟,黄姜播种期提前,生长期延长.同时,气候变化也使得新泰病虫害加重、春季冻害加剧,极端气候事件增多引起的极端天气对果树产量和品质的影响更为剧烈,黄姜和黄花菜种植风险加大.[结论]该研究为促进新泰经济社会可持续发展提供科学依据.%[Objective] The research aimed to study the climate variation characteristic and its influence on the crop fanning in Xintai City. [Method] By using the yearly and monthly average temperature, rainfall, first and last frost dates, frost-free period, sunshine hours, etc. in Xintai City during 1957 -2009, the climate variation characteristic and its influence on the crop farming in Xintai City in recent 53 years were analyzed. [ Result] The temperature rose in the fluctuation in Xintai City. The warm winter phenomenon was prominent, and ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature increased yearly. In recent 10 years, the first frost postponed, and the last frost advanced. The growth season of crop prolonged. The annual rainfall decreased in the fluctuation, and the annual sunshine hours presented the decrease trend as a whole. For the accumulated temperature increased, and the frost-free period prolonged, the sowing date and fanning system of main crops in Xintai City changed. The rising of winter temperature was favorable for the development of industrialized agriculture, such as the warm house booth. The multiple-cropping index was improved, and the characteristic planting superior was prominent. The climate warming made that the planting areas of yellow ginger and day lily enlarged, and the planting boundary moved northward. The sowing dates of wheat and peanut were postponed- The sowing date of yellow ginger was advanced, and the growth period was prolonged. Meanwhile, the climate variation also made that the plant diseases and insect pests, spring frost damage aggravated in Xintai. The influence of extreme weather which was induced by the increasing of extreme climate event on the yield and quality of fruit tree was stronger. The planting risks of yellow ginger and day lily increased. [ Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for promoting the sustainable development of economic society in Xintai.