[目的]初步探索我国能源消费与气候变化的关系.[方法]总结了1951 ～ 2009年我国的气候变化特征,从我国历年能源生产消费量、历年全国能源构成、万元GDP能耗等方面,分析了近几十年来我国经济社会的发展,探讨了我国能源消费、经济发展对气候变化的影响.[结果]近59年来,我国平均气温显著上升,且区域差异显著,35°N以北地区的增温趋势大于以南地区,东北、内蒙古等地增温趋势达0.04℃/a;1981 ～2009年的平均气温比其前30年的最多高2.0℃以上；1985年是我国能源生产消费的突变年,全国平均温度在1989年发生了显著突变,气温突变滞后于能源生产消费突变.我国万元GDP能耗水平1978年以来明显下降,但1998年以后,下降速度明显放缓,2003年还出现了反弹；我国新能源总量虽逐年上升,但由于能源消费总量一直处于上升趋势,新能源所占比例一直维持在1/4左右.建立了考虑和未考虑能耗系数条件下的能源消费增长模型,在考虑了能耗系数后,原煤在能源消费中的贡献率有所下降,而原油、天然气和水电的贡献率都有所上升.全国温度变化趋势与经济发展和能源消费逐年增加相一致,平均温度变化趋势和有效能源消费量基本呈良好的正相关关系,最大相关系数为80％.[结论]该研究证实了发展清洁高效能源和低碳经济对缓解气候变化的重要性.实施低碳经济、转变经济增长方式已刻不容缓.%[Objective] The research aimed to study relation between energy consumption and climate change in China. [ Method ] Climate change characteristics from 1951 to 2009 in China were summarized. Economic and social developments in China were analyzed from production and consumption amounts of the energy, energy source composition and energy consumption of the GDP (ten-thousand yuan). Influences of the energy consumption and economic development on climate change were discussed. [Result] Annual average temperature of China increased obviously from 1951 to 2009, and regional difference was distinct. Increasing trend of the temperature in the north of 35?N was bigger than that in the south. Increasing trend of the temperature in northeast China and Inner Mongolia reached 0.04 X./a. The average temperature from 1981 to 2009 was higher than that from 1951 to 1980, and the biggest difference was more than 2.0 X.. Mutation of Chinese energy production and consumption happened in 1985, but average temperature of China had an obvious mutation in 1989, showing temperature mutation lagged behind energy production and consumption mutation. Energy consumption of the GDP (ten-thousand yuan) decreased evidently from 1978 to 1997. Beginning from 1998, the decreasing pace slowed down markedly, and there was a rebound in 2003. Chinese new energy a-mount was increasing year by year. Because the total energy consumption amount was also increasing, new energy proportion had been maintained about one quarter. The energy consumption increasing model with energy consumption coefficient and the model without energy consumption coefficient were set up in this paper. It was found that Chinese energy structure changed a little after considering energy consumption coefficient. Proportion of the coal decreased, while proportions of the oil, natural gas and electric power increased. Temperature changing trend was consistent with that of the economic development and energy consumption. Change trend of the average temperature basically presented good positive correlation with effective energy consumption amount, and the maximum correlation coefficient was 80% . [ Conclusion] The research proved the importance of developing clean & efficient energy and carrying out low-carbon economy to relieve climate change of China. It was urgent to carry out low-carbon economy and transform economic growth manner.
展开▼
