九江鄱阳湖区棉花花铃期高温的时空变化研究

摘要

The variation features of ≥35 ℃ high temperature days, which are important climate factors affecting cotton yield, and the effects onrncotton bolls were analyzed in order to grasp the trend of meteorological disaster during cotton production in the backdrop of global climate change.rnThe results were as follows; Cotton bolls has inverse ratio to ≥35 ℃ high temperature days. The annual changes of high temperature days fromrnJuly to September show overall cyclical oscillation trend, and linear trend is not significant nearly more than 50 years in Poyang Lake of Jiujiang.rnThe mutation does not increase, the high temperature risk of cotton did not increase significantly with the global climate change.%为了掌握在全球气候变化背景下棉花生产的气象灾害风险变化趋势,就影响棉花产量形成的重要气候因子——花铃期≥35℃高温日数对棉花结铃的影响及其自身变化特征进行了分析.结果表明,棉花成铃数与花铃期≥35℃高温日数成反正；近50多年来,九江鄱阳湖地区7～9月高温日数年变化总体呈现周期性振荡态势,线性变化趋势不显著,没有出现全区性突变增多现象,棉花高温风险尚未因为全球气候变化而显著加大.