气候变化对莱阳玉米生产的影响

摘要

Using the data of temperature,precipitation,sunshine hours and yield data of the summer maize growth period (late June-late September) in Laiyang City from 1951 to 2015,a linear regression analysis,integral regression analysis and stepwise regression were used to analyze the climatic tendency of sunshine,temperature and precipitation during the whole growth period of summer maize in Laiyang City,and the relationship between the sunshine,temperature and precipitation and maize yield during the summer maize growth period of each ten days.And the suitable sowing date of summer maize was determined.The results showed that the most severe climate change period was 1983-2013,the climate was characterized by high temperature,less precipitation,less sunshine.Meteorological factors and summer maize yield had a certain correlation.In 1980-2015,due to reduced rainfall,the meteorological elements of most of the year could not meet the growth needs of summer maize.The optimum sowing period of summer maize was June 7 to 13.%利用莱阳市1951-2015年夏玉米生育期(6月下旬-9月下旬)气温、降水量、日照时数资料以及产量资料,采用一元线性回归、积分回归分析、逐步回归等方法,分析了莱阳市夏玉米全生育期光、温、水的气候倾向率,以及夏玉米生育期各旬光、温、水与玉米产量的相关关系,并确定夏玉米的适宜播种时期.结果表明,1983-2013年是气候变化最剧烈的时段,其气候特点是气温高、降水少、日照少;气象要素与夏玉米产量有一定的相关;1980-2015年因雨水减少,大部分年份气象要素不能满足夏玉米生长需求.夏玉米最适播种时期是6月7-13日.