The impact of threats due to climate change on white corn production and adaptations to ensure food safety

摘要

Background: Mexico is an agricultural nation and corn is a basic staple of the population's diet, 82% of Mexico's production is harvested by dry-land farming. Jalisco contributes 20% of the country's production of this cereal. Jalisco is vulnerable to climate change, particularly its agricultural sector. Aims: Analyze hydro-meteorological threats due to climate change, their effect on white corn production and on guaranteeing the population's food demand. Methods: The information on harvested areas used for white corn dry-farming, yield and harvested areas affected by natural disasters from 2001-2010 was obtained from the Agriculture and Fishing Information Service. Historical records were analyzed to identify threats due to climate change that affecting corn production in Jalisco. Loss in corn production with respect to average yield per hectare at the municipal level and the population affected by such loss with respect to number of individuals impacted by the loss in production, and annual deaths due to undernourishment during this period were analyzed. Resu!ts:During 2000-2010, 51.82% of the land area in Jalisco was used for corn dry farming, the harvested production was 62.11% in tons and land that had suffered disasters was 5.81% in ha. The threats with impact on production at the municipal level were droughts, torrential rains and floods. The population exposed to the lost harvest totaled 6,920,638 pers/year on average. It is estimated that the people who suffered malnutrition due to a decrease in production were 553,651,032 pers/year. On average, 604 deaths/year were recorded as caused by malnutrition. Conclusions: the corn production in Jalisco has been affected by natural disasters. The climate change scenarios, corn production, the agricultural sector and the population that depends on this source of food are highly vulnerable.