陆战场空域用户飞行碰撞概率评估

摘要

Abstract :This paper analyzes flight collision factor of airspace users in land field and sets up the flight collision probability models that include vertical probability model, transverse probability model and lateral probability model based on Reich model. It simulates and calculates flight collision probability index of airspace control and coordination system in order to validate probability models, finally analyzes and contrasts the variety conditions of flight collision probability index under traditional airspace control measures and airspace control and coordination system respectively. The conclusion is that flight collision probability is greatly reduced when using airspace control and coordination system.%对陆战场空域用户飞行误撞因素进行了分析；在Reich模型的基础上，构建了飞行碰撞概率模型，包括垂直方向概率模型、侧向概率模型和纵向概率模型。为验证飞行碰撞概率模型的有效性，仿真计算了空域管制与协调系统的飞行碰撞概率指标，并对比分析了传统空域管制手段与空域管制协调系统的飞行碰撞概率指标的变化情况，结果表明：相对传统空域管制手段，空域管制与协调系统飞行碰撞概率大幅降低。