美国货币政策对中国经济动态冲击的实证研究

摘要

本文对美国货币政策对我国实体经济的冲击效应进行了实证检验,结构化动态冲击分析表明,美国货币政策正向冲击（1）短期内会引起中国总产出、出口总额的增加,长期中则会导致中国总产出、出口总额的下降;（2）短期内会造成中国进口总额的上升,长期中最终会对中国进口总额产生负向冲击;（3）方差分解结果显示,美国货币政策的正向冲击对中国出口总额的影响最大。（4）美国货币政策对中国实体经济影响程度相对于国内部分学者的结论较小。%This article made an empirical test on the impulse of US monetary policy to Chinese economy.The structural impulse response analysis showed that the positive impulse of US monetary policy（1）） could increase Chinese outputs and exports in the short term and decrease those in the long term.（2） could make Chinese imports rise in the short term and adversely affected it in the long term.（3） had more influence on Chinese exports,which is proved by the result of variance decomposition.（4）The impact of US monetary policy on Chinese economy is less compared with the conclusions of some domestic researchers.