日本海洋国家战略与北极地缘政治格局演变研究

摘要

Japan’s National Ocean Strategy has gone through an expanding-shrinking-re-expanding devel-opment phase.In view of the resources,environment,strategic and economic value in Arctic area,Japa-nese government has positively participated in Arctic affairs and pursued the Arctic benefits under the frame of national ocean strategy.The strong intervention towards Arctic affairs made by Japanese govern-ment may cause a significant change in Arctic Geopolitical Structure.This paper analyzes the development process and the future trend of the Japanese national ocean strategy,and draws a conclusion that the Japa-nese national ocean strategy is mainly influenced by the nation identification of Japan (to be a marine na-tion or continental nation),the geopolitical pattern of East Asia,and the marine super power-US.This pa-per also reflects that the Japanese national ocean strategy will show a tendency of expansion in the future. Then,this paper analyzes how Arctic geopolitical structure will influence Japan's national ocean strategy and the trend of the changes of Japan’s national ocean strategy in the future,puts forward that Japan will restrict China in developing Arctic engagement strategy,having better diplomatic relations with Russia and enhancing its military force.Finally,studying the change of the Arctic Geopolitical Structure should be based on the standing points of China,US,Russia,Japan.%日本的海洋战略经历了扩张———收缩———再扩张的发展阶段。出于对北极地区的资源、环境、战略价值、经济价值的多方面考量，日本政府近年在海洋国家战略框架下积极参与北极事务，谋求北极权益。日本对北极事务介入力度的加强，也将引起北极地缘政治格局的较大变化。文章首先分析了日本国家海洋战略的发展历程以及未来趋势，指出日本的海洋战略主要受其国家身份认知(发展成为海洋国家或是大陆国家)、东亚大陆地缘政治格局及海洋霸主国———美国的影响，并得出未来日本的海洋战略将呈现出对外扩张的趋势，进而探究了日本国家海洋战略受北极地缘政治格局的影响以及日本海洋战略的未来发展趋势，得出日本未来将制约中国的北极参与战略、缓和对俄关系、并增强其军事力量，最后从俄罗斯、日本、中国、美国4个国家为出发点分析北极地缘政治格局的演变。