基于时间序列模型的商业企业销售量预测方法研究

摘要

预测是企业管理的一个重要职能，在如今激烈的商业竞争下，如何根据现有的数据预测未来并制定适宜的策略是企业成败的关键。本文在研究商业企业销售量时间序列的基础上，结合季节变动分析方法，建立商业企业年销售量预测模型，并在此基础上对商业企业实际销售预测给出的指导性建议。%Prediction is an important function of business management in today's highly competitive busi⁃ness, how to predict the future and to develop appropriate strategies based on existing data is the key to success. Based on the study of time series sales volumes of commercial enterprises, combined with seasonal variation analysis, this paper established annual sales forecasting model in commercial enterprises, and provided guid⁃ance and advice on the basis for the actual sales forecast of commercial enterprises.