In order to achieve effective emergency rescue for chemical industrial park,according to the demand and characteristics of the emergency materials in the chemical industry park,the priority index system of emergency mate-rial demand in the chemical industry park was established from three aspects of the basic material requirements,the emergency material consumption and the emergency material consumption. Based on the TOPSIS method,the impor-tance classification of emergency materials was ordered and a BP neural network prediction model for emergency mate-rial demand was also designed. The analysis of historical accidents in chemical industry park shows that the demand forecast of emergency materials for BP neural network is very small compared with the actual emergency supplies. The emergency material requirement classification decision scheme combined with the TOPSIS method can effectively aux-iliary the organization and dispatch of emergency materials and maximize the emergency effectiveness.%为实现化工园区高效应急救援,针对化工园区应急物资需求及特点,从基本物资需求量、应急物资消耗量、应急物资损耗量3个方面,构建化工园区应急物资需求优先级指标体系;基于TOPSIS方法对各应急物资需求进行重要性分级排序,设计求解出应急物资需求量的BP神经网络预测模型.以化工园区历史事故案例进行分析,结果表明,BP神经网络应急物资需求预测结果和实际应急物资需求量相差很小,结合TOP-SIS方法后的应急物资需求分级决策方案,能有效辅助应急物资的组织和调度,最大限度地发挥应急效用.
展开▼
