群决策环境下危险品运输风险评价方法

摘要

In order to reasonably determine the risk level of different transport plans and support manufacturers'transport decision , a set of hazmat transportation risk evaluation index system is constructed and a risk evaluation method is proposed in a group decision environment .Fuzzy linguistic terms are intro-duced to represent experts'judgment information .The degree of consistency of experts'judgment informa-tion is used to modify the experts'weights .A comprehensive assigning weight method is used to determine the weights of the evaluation index system .Furthermore , the lattice degree of approaching is adopted to calculate the risk result .The proposed method can greatly reduce the complexity of the risk assessment . Finally, using an example from some dangerous goods transport , the method is shown to be effective and feasible.%为了合理地确定不同运输方案的风险等级，为危险品生产企业提供运输决策支持，构建了危险品运输风险评价指标体系，提出了群决策环境下危险品运输风险评价方法。该方法应用模糊语言术语来表达评价值，基于专家评价值的一致度来修正专家初始权重，利用综合赋权法确定评价指标的权重，引入格贴近度确定不同运输方案的风险等级。该方法有效地降低了风险评价工作的复杂性。最后以某危险品运输为例，验证了该方法的可行性和实用性。