考虑气候风险的农产品供应链回扣与订货策略

摘要

In order to analyze the impact of weather risk on agricultural supply chain , a rebate model based on cobweb theory has been built first .And it involves three parameters like lead time , weather temperature and order quantity .This model effectively controls weather risk on agricultural supply chain.Then, by the method of risk measurement CVaR , optimal ordering strategy for wholesales is figured out.Finally, with a numerical example, it analyzes profit of supply chain members.It is shown that rebate model can play a role of profit transfer , and help to reduce the market price , increase market sales, even weaken agricultural product’ sales uncertainty.All these contribute to the profitability of agricultural supply chain .%为了分析气候风险对农产品供应链的收益影响，构建基于蛛网理论的回扣订货模型，该模型涉及提前期、气候温度、订购量3个参数，有效解决了气候风险对农产品供应链的影响。通过CVaR风险度量方法，给出了批发商在回扣模型中的最优订货决策。通过数值算例分析了供应链成员的收益变化。结果表明，考虑气候风险的回扣模型发挥了利润传递作用，有效降低农产品市场售价，扩大市场需求，削弱销售不确定性，提升了整个农产品供应链的盈利能力。