基于三维评估模型转包生产合同风险管理的创新之路

摘要

针对传统二维风险评估模型的局限性,提出一种基于风险影响-概率矩阵的三维风险评估方法,即增加一类可检测性指标,对二维评估结果进行修正,解决转包生产活动中供应商面临的合同风险评估问题.通过建立某航空部件转包合同的二维和三维风险评估模型,并使用Borda序值法进行定量分析,验证了该方法的优越性.%Aiming at the limitations of traditional two-dimensional evaluation model, a three-dimensional evaluation method is presented based on risk impact-probability matrix. By adding the detectability index, the issue of risk assessment faced by suppliers in subcontracting activity can be resolved and the assessment results corrected. Two-dimensional and three-dimensional evaluation models are built and a quantitative a-nalysis by Borda count method in an aviation subcontracting case is conducted, which proves the effective-ness and correctness of the methods.