基于系统动力学仿真的医疗资源配置

摘要

A system dynamics-based simulation model is proposed while we are trying to allocate medical resources efficiently between regular patients and emergent patients when a large-scale emergent incident happens.In this model, time dependent health condition of patients, medical staff' s diagnostic decision and confidence, and Bayesian prediction distribution based assessment duration in each service station and emergent patients' arrival intervals are considered.In order to evaluate different medical resources alloca-tion scenarios, a comprehensive performance indicator taking into account death rate and patients' average stay in system is provided.In the simulation experiment, a comparison is made among the three resources allocation rules in different system scenes and the one based on patient scale is proved to be better than the other two rules, which provides efficient reference for hospitals to make emergency medical resources allo-cation decision and contingency plan.%为了在突发事故发生时在常规病人和突发病人之间进行有效的医疗资源配置,建立了基于系统动力学的仿真模型.模型中考虑了病人病情的实时变化、医务人员的诊断信心和决策以及基于贝叶斯预测分布的评估时间和突发病人到达时间间隔,并基于最小化病人死亡率和系统平均逗留时间建立资源分配方案评价指标.通过仿真实验,比较了3种资源配置规则在不同场景下的性能优劣,证明了基于病人规模的资源分配规则较其他候选规则能够得到更好的应急处置效果,为医院的应急医疗资源配置决策及应急预案制定提供有效的参考.