Taking Shangqiu as the 9tudy area, the climate data and maize yields of observation stations from 1991 to 2010 were used to determine the effects of climate changes on maize (Zea mays L.) yield in the east of Henan by principal component analysis and Thomthwaite memoriae model. The prediction results in the future and possible increase extent of the climate productivity of maize were discovered. The results showed that maize yields increased with fluctuations. The results of principal component analysis illustrated that the main factors affecting maize yield were temperature, precipitation and extreme temperature. Excessive precipitation and low temperature had adverse effects on maize production. The warm-wet type climate was beneficial to maize production; and the cold-dry type climate was detrimental to maize production.%为探明气候变化对豫东玉米(Zea mays L.)产量的影响,以河南省商丘市为研究区域,根据1991～2010年河南省商丘市气候变化和玉米产量资料,利用数学统计与Thomthwaite memoriae模型,结合未来气候预测结果定量分析了气候变化对玉米产量的影响.结果表明,在全球气候变暖的背景下,玉米产量整体上呈波动上升趋势;主成分分析表明,气温、降水量与极端温度为影响玉米产量的主要气候因子,降水过多及低温对玉米生产不利.河南省商丘市“暖温型”气候有利于玉米生产力的提高,“冷干型”气候对玉米生产最为不利.
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