蔬菜主要病虫害发生流行气象预报模型

摘要

Aiming at two main diseases and insects of vegetable downy mildew and cabbage caterpillar,short-term and yearly climatic prediction forecasting models about them were established respectively.The actual observation result indicated that the forecasting models fitted well.These models will be used for developing a suit of meteorological level forecasting operation systems of vegetable pests and diseases,which will play an important part in promptly and accurately forecasting the occurrence and prevalence of downy mildew and cabbage caterpillar,provide technical support for prevention and management of vegetable production,guide vegetable production scientifically,make a rational use of chemical pesticide,and improve the quality of vegetables.%针对蔬菜霜霉病和菜青虫这两个主要病虫害,分别建立霜霉病和菜青虫流行程度短期预测和气候年景预测预报模型.实际观测结果表明,预报拟合效果较好.在预报模型基础上开发出一套蔬菜病虫害气象等级预报业务系统,对霜霉病和菜青虫的发生和流行进行及时准确的预报,为蔬菜生产管理及病虫害防治提供技术支持,科学指导蔬菜生产,合理使用农药,提高蔬菜的品质.