Dynamic Selection of Ensemble Members in Multi-model Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting

摘要

Multi-model prediction ensembles show significant ability to improve forecasts. Nevertheless, the set of models in an ensemble is not always optimal. This work proposes a procedure that allows to select dynamically ensemble members for each forecast. Proposed procedure was evaluated for the task of the water level forecasting in the Baltic See. The regression-based estimation of ensemble forecasts errors was used to implement the selection procedure. Improvement of the forecast quality in terms of mean forecast RMS error and mean forecast skill score are demonstrated.