Based on the water temperature data and meteorological element of Wuhan City during the period from 2009 to 2011,the study built a set of water temperature forecast model about pond of 0.2～1.0 hectare,by means of matlab and multiple stepwise regression analysis.And it is verified by experiments in Wuhan and Jingzhou.The results showed that that the variation extent of water temperature changed with different depth of water and different weather conditions,a deeper level and more cloudy weather made the water temperature change fewer;the water temperature varied with the change of air temperature,but it obviously lagged behind.The R2 of the forecast models were all above 0.8,which proved that the fitting effects were very well.The verifying results indicated that the developed models with wide applicability and good reliability could be applied to forecast water temperature of pond.%根据武汉市2009-2011年的水体温度数据和台站气温要素,通过Matlab进行多元逐步回归分析构建0.2～1.0 hm2池塘的水体温度预报预测模型,并在武汉和荆州两地进行了验证.结果表明,不同深度和不同天气条件下水温变化幅度不同,在水体较深处和阴天时水温变化较小；水温随气温变化而变化,但明显有滞后.水体温度预报预测模型的R2均在0.8以上,拟合效果好.经验证,各模型预测精度较高,具有较好的可靠性和普适性,可用于池塘水温的预报.
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