Based on the climate suitability model of Maize in Xing'an League, physiological indexes and prediction model of maize was established using dailymeteorological data and growth stage observation data of Tuquan County Agricultural Observation Station from 1982 to 2010,and the model's prediction results were verified using the maize growth period observation data of three major maize grain-producing counties in Xing'an League from 2011 to 2015. The results showed that there was good agreement between predictions and observations for the duration of each growth stage. The average absolute error between the predicted value and the observed value was 1.7 to 4.5 days,root mean square error was 1.2 to 3.7 days. The frequencies of the absolute error within 3 days was near to 62% during the vegetative growth stage,and the frequencies of the absolute error less than 3 days was about 64% during reproductive growth stage. The model could predict the development period well, and the forecast accuracy could meet the requirements.%在以日为尺度的兴安盟玉米(Zea maysL.)气候适宜度模型的基础上,利用突泉县农业观测站1982-2010年地面气象资料及同期的玉米生育期观测资料,建立了兴安盟玉米生育期预报生理指标及预报模型,并利用兴安盟3个玉米主产旗县2011-2015年的玉米生育期观测数据对模型的预报结果进行验证.结果表明,各生育期持续时间的预报值与实际观测值一致程度较高,各生育期预报值与观测值之间的平均绝对误差在1.7~4.5 d,均方根误差在1.2~3.7 d;营养生长阶段绝对误差在3d以内出现的频次接近62%,生殖生长阶段绝对误差在3d以内出现的频次约为64%,模型能较好地预测相关生育期(出苗、三叶、拔节、抽雄、乳熟和成熟期),预报精度基本可以满足需求.
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