经济增长、城镇化与耕地非农化关系的计量分析——以江苏省为例

摘要

The increase of non-agricultural land and the lack of effective protection of arable land can be a obstacle to the sustainable development of the economy.Method of co-integration analysis and Granger causality test were employed.According to the statistical data of Jiangsu Province in 1999～2014,the internal mechanism of cultivated land conversion is studied.Results show that economic development is a unilateral Granger cause of non-agricultural land quantity and a co-integration relation has been found between them.Urbanization is a multilateral Granger cause of non-agricultural land quantity and has a co-integration relation with it.We should take a right and positive attitude toward the problems,protect arable land,use land intensively and change the mode of economic growth to achieve sustainable land use and sustainable economic development.%非农用地增加且耕地缺乏有效保护对经济可持续发展是一大障碍.运用协整分析和Granger因果分析方法,利用江苏省1999～2014年的统计数据分析江苏省耕地非农化的内在机制.结果表明,经济增长是耕地非农化的单向Granger成因,两者存在协整关系;城镇化水平和耕地非农化存在协整关系且互为因果.应正确地认识与积极地看待耕地非农化问题,加强耕地保护,集约利用土地,转变经济增长方式,实现土地可持续利用和经济可持续发展的良性循环.