基于蒙特卡罗法的汽车起重机起重臂结构可靠性分析

摘要

汽车起重机起重臂作为主要承载部件,其结构失效是造成汽车起重机事故的主要原因,产生的后果较严重.在实际作业中,起重臂结构失效受到载荷、结构尺寸和材料属性等诸多不确定参数的影响,这些不确定参数包括概率和非概率两种参数,由于非概率参数的存在,无法采用概率参数可靠性的计算方法求解起重臂结构的可靠性.为此,文中基于蒙特卡罗法,结合贝叶斯网络分析计算起重臂结构的概率-非概率模型的可靠性,通过实例验证了该方法的有效性和可行性,为起重臂结构可靠性计算及设计提供了参考.%Jib as the main bearing part of the truck crane, its structural failure is the main cause of the accident of the truck crane, the consequences are more serious. In practices, jib fails due to lots of uncertain parameters such as load, structure size and material properties including both probabilistic and non-probabilistic parameters. Since it's impossible to solve reliability of jib structure with probabilistic parameter reliability calculation method in the presence of probabilistic parameters, the paper turns to analyze and calculate reliability of probabilistic and non-probabilistic hybrid model of jib structure based on the combination of Monte Carlo method and Bayesian network. The method proves to be effective and feasible through examples, which provides reference for reliability calculation and design of jib structure.