2014年哈尔滨市中央台精细化指导预报检验报告

摘要

对中央气象台2014年1-9月下发的精细化温度指导预报产品，各市（地）上传的县级以上城市24 h晴雨预报、高温、低温TS评分相对中央气象台指导预报订正技巧进行了检验分析，结果发现：总体上最高温度预报好于最低温度预报，中部偏西北地区好于其他部地区。预报最大误差出现在2-3月份的温度转折期间。预报质量最好的月份为7月。经过简单订正后，此精细预报可以作为哈尔滨市温度预报的主要参考依据。%Analyzed the weather forecast under the guidance of Central Meteorological Station,the forecast veracity of precipitation, the lowest temperature, and the highest temperature of each station in Harbin during January to September in 2014. It shows that, the forecast of the highest temperature is better than the lowest temperature, on the whole, Central northwest region better than other parts of the region, ,the largest forecast error appears in the transition temperature in February and March. Forecast quality is the best in July. After a simple revised, This forecasting products can be used as a main guide reference in Harbin.