新疆农业全要素用水效率动态演进及影响因素分析

摘要

为了针对性地指导干旱和半干旱地区的农业节水,选取2004-2013年新疆14个地州市际面板数据,采用全要素水资源效率测度思路,在CRS条件下运用基于投入导向的超效率DEA模型,对新疆地州市以及分区域农业用水效率进行了测度,依托α收敛与核密度估计方法对其开展动态演进分析,利用Tobit模型分析影响新疆农业用水效率的因素.结果表明:在区域层面上,北疆与全疆农业节水技术、意识、管理水平等差异虽然呈缩小态势,但在区域内仍面临着发展不协调的问题;南疆农业用水效率不断恶化,用水形势堪忧,但各地州市农业用水效率差距较小,发展趋于均衡协调;东疆地区农业用水效率具有明显的"俱乐部收敛"特征,区域内各地区用水效率呈现增长趋势.在诸多影响因素中,年均日照时间、农田水利建设、农业生产布局和灌溉费用对于提升新疆农业用水效率具有双向影响,经济水平具有显著的促进作用,而年均降水量、水资源禀赋水平和产业结构则具有显著的负向影响.该研究从多个维度分析了农业用水效率的动态演进过程,对干旱和半干旱区开展农业节水工作具有一定的指导作用.%In order to guide the agricultural water saving in arid and semi arid regions,the paper selects 14 cities' data from 2004 to 2013 in Xinjiang,taking the total factor water efficiency measurement,using the input-oriented super-efficiency DEA model under the CRS condition,the selected cities and regional agricultural water utility efficiency is measured in Xinjiang.Meanwhile,the paper makes dynamic evolution analysis on basis of α-convergence and kernel-density estimation,taking the Tobit model to analyze the factors affecting agricultural water utility efficiency in Xinjiang.The results show that at the regi-onal level,although the difference of agricultural water saving technology,consciousness and management level between Northern Region and All Region has been reduces,it still faces the problem of regional uncoordinated development.The agricultural water utility efficiency in Southern Region is deteriorating and agricultural water situation is severe,however,the city agricultural water efficiency gap is small and the development tends to be in balance and coordination.There is obvious characteristics of "club convergence" to agricultural water use efficiency in Eastern Region and the regional water use efficiency is increasing.Among many influencing factors,the average annual sunshine time,farmland water conservancy construction,agricultural production distribution and irrigation fees have a two-way impacts for agricultural water utility efficiency promotion.Economic level has significant positive effect.The average annual precipitation,water resource endowment level and industrial structure have significant negative effects.The study analyzes the efficiency of agricultural water from multiple dimensions of dynamic evolution process,and for arid and semi arid areas,the agricultural water-saving work has a certain guiding role.