灰色模型GM（1,1）在海南省梅毒发病率预测中的应用

摘要

Objective To explore the applications of grey model in predicting the incidence of syphilis in Hainan Province, and to forecast the incidence trends in syphilis from 2014 to 2018 by grey model, in order to provide a scientific base for reasonable distribution of health resource to prevent and control syphilis. Methods Gray model were adopted for fitting and predicting the incidence of syphilis in Hainan Province from 2009 to 2013. Results The prediction model was , and the estimation test results of model were C=0.290 7<0.35, P=1. Extrapolating the syphilis incidence in Hainan Province in next five years, it is estimated that the syphilis inci-dences would be 45.98/100 000, 52.60/100 000, 60.19/100 000, 68.85/100 000 and 78.78/10 0 000. Conclusion The GM(1,1) model is fit for predicting the incidence of syphilis. The incidence of syphilis is sustainably on growing tread in the next five years.%目的：探讨灰色模型预测海南省梅毒发病率的适用性，并对未来5年梅毒发病趋势进行预测，为科学制定梅毒防控措施、合理配置防控资源提供依据。方法运用GM(1,1)建模方法对2009-2013年海南省梅毒的发病率进行模型拟合，对拟合精度进行评判，并运用模型进行梅毒发病率预测。结果海南省梅毒发病率的GM(1，1)模型，拟合精度和预测效果好(C=0.2907<0.35，P=1)，模型预计今后5年海南省梅毒发病率结果分别为45.98/10万，52.60/10万，60.19/10万，68.85/10万，78.78/10万。结论预测结果表明，GM(1,1)模型能够很好地预测梅毒发病率的趋势。未来5年海南省梅毒发病率呈逐年上升的趋势。