目的 通过建立风险预测模型,寻找脑梗死急性期干预效果预测因子.方法 收集302例急性脑梗死患者的临床资料,首先通过χ2检验或单因素方差分析筛选临床急性脑梗死的危险因素,然后将上述具有显著差异的指标纳入多因素Logistic逐步回归分析,建立脑梗死急性期干预效果预测方程.结果 单因素分析显示25个指标纳入Logistic回归分析,多因素Logistic回归表明仅高血压(OR=4.102,P=0.005)、糖尿病(OR=2.675,P=0.023)、心房颤动(OR=5.125,P=0.001)、肺部感染(OR=3.563,P=0.015)、收缩压(OR=2.346,P=0.032),Hs-CRP(OR=4.042,P=0.013)、Hcy(OR=1.403,P=0.034)、UA(OR=3.821,P=0.017)、D2(OR=2.137,P=0.026)、Lp α(OR=1.235,P=0.041)为脑梗死急性期干预效果的独立预测因子.结论 合并高血压、糖尿病、心房颤动、肺部感染及收缩压和生化指标Hs-CRP、Hcy 、UA、D2和Lp α是脑梗死急性期干预效果的独立预测危险因素和因子.%To investigate the predictors of the intervention effect of acute cerebral infarction by establishing the risk predictive model. Methods The clinical data of 302 cases with acute brain infarction were collected. All data were analyzed by single factor one-way analysis of variance and Chi-square test. The risk factors and biochemical results of significant difference in different groups were selected for risk predictive model, and then a logistic regression equation for predicting the effect of acute cerebral infarction was established. Results Seven risk factors and 18 biochemical parameters were selected to establish the risk predictive model. Hypertension( OR =4.102,P =0.005 ), diabetes( OR =2.675,P =0.023 ),atrial fibrillation( OR =5.125,P =0.001 ),lung infection( OR =3.563,P =0.015 ), systolic pressureC OR =2. 346,P= 0.032 ),Hs-CRP( OR =4. 042,P =0. 013 ),Hcy ( OR = 1. 403,P =0. 034 ),UA ( OR =3.821 ,P =0.017 ),D2( OR =2.137 ,P =0.026 ),Lp a( OR = 1.235,P =0.041 )were independent risk factors and predictive factors for the effect of acute brain infarction. Conclusion Hypertension, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, systolic pressure, Hs-CRP, Hey, UA, D2 and Lpa are independent risk factors and predictors for the effect of acute cerebral infarction.
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