梅江松源河段非一致性水文频率分析

摘要

随着气候变化以及人类活动的影响，水文要素时间序列的一致性受到广泛质疑，传统水文频率分析已经不能满足日益精进的水文设计精度要求，如何将非一致性水文要素时间序列转化成符合一致性要求的序列是当今水文数据处理研究的重点。该文以梅江流域松源河上的宝坑站为例，进行水文变异以及非一致性水文频率分析。采用Mann－Kendall检测法以及Lee－Heghinian法对宝坑年径流量进行突变点检验，将水文变异序列进行基于趋势分析的非一致性水文频率分析以及基于两P－Ⅲ混合分布的非一致性水文频率分析。结果显示：宝坑站年径流量序列在1983年发生了变异；经过一致性修正后，百年一遇年径流量比原始序列减小了3．10％。%With the influence of climate change and human activities, the consistency of hydrology data has been widely questioned. Traditional hydrologic frequency analysis has not met the requirement of increasingly hydrological design accuracy, and how to con-vert non-stationary hydrological data to the consistency of data series is the main emphasis of this research on hydrological data processing.Taking the Baokeng hydrometric station as a case study, hydrological variation and the hydrological frequency analysis of non-stationary have been analyzed.Firstly, the methods of Mann -Kendall and Lee -Heghinian are used to examine the muta-tion of annual runoff of Baokeng.And then, frequency calculation of inconsistent annual runoff series are done based on the trend a-nalysis and mixed distribution.The results show that the Baokeng annual runoff variation has happened in 1983, and after a revised consistency, a once-in-a-century annual runoff decreases 3.10%than the original sequence.