用福建省晋江市1961-2010年的气象资料,分析其气候变化及农业灾害性天气的特征和规律,并使用2011-2016年资料数据进行对比分析,结果表明:近半个多世纪以来,晋江市的气温和降水量呈上升趋势, 日照时数呈下降趋势,气温变化存在明显的突变现象,气候变暖的最大贡献为冬季;21世纪以来降水量偏多的时段主要出现在夏季、秋季;1991年以来,春季低温阴雨、秋季寒露风天气发生概率明显减小,强度减弱,而暴雨和大暴雨天气发生次数、强度明显增加,降水相对集中,严重旱灾发生概率呈明显增加趋势.%In this paper, characteristics and regularity of climate change and agricultural disastrous weather in Jinjiang City were analyzed using climatological data between 1961-2010 and with comparison of climatological data between 2011-2016.The results showed that there was upward trend of temperature and rainfall and downward trend of sunshine hours in nearly half a century.Sudden changes of temperature obviously occurred.Climate warming was mostly attributed by winter.Since the 21st century, summer and autumn offered most of excessive amount of precipitation.Since 1991, the possibility of low temperature and overcast rain in spring and cold dew wind in autumn significantly decreased and their intensity weakened while frequency and intensity of heavy rain and heavy downpour evidently increased, precipitation relatively concentrated, and probability of severe drought occurrence had obvious increasing trend.
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