郑州市生态安全评价及预测模型评价研究

摘要

以2001～2006年郑州市的生态安全综合指数为原始数据,运用灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型与改进了的灰数等维递补动态预测模型分别对郑州市生态安全进行短期和较长期的预测和分析.结果认为,未来几年郑州市生态安全状况仍呈现出稳定上升的趋势,灰数等维递补动态预测模型弥补了灰色系统只适用于短期预测的缺陷,可做较长期预测.%Taking the ecological security index from 2001 to 2006 of Zhengzhou as raw data, short-term and longer-term ecological security of Zhengzhou has been respectively forecasted and analyzed by adapting gray system GM ( 1, 1 ) prediction model and improved gray dimension recurrence dynamic forecasting model. The results conclude that in the next few years, the ecological security of Zhengzhou still shows a steady increase in the trend. The improve gray dimension recurrence dynamic forecasting model can make up for the gray system prediction model which only for short-term forecasts, and can do more long-term forecasting.