系统视角下的企业经营失败形成机理与财务预警研究

摘要

Concerning business failure prediction, the lack of system concept causes the scientificity and the practicality of main-stream research facing serious challenges. To solve this problem, system theory is introduced in this paper, so that the enterprise is regarded as a system composed by stocks and flows. By analysing the relationship between stocks and flows in the system, with consideration of the effect of financing, the business failure principle is derived. Based on this, a four-quadrant financial prediction method of business failure is proposed to help enterprises identify failure signal in time, and therefore make improvement and reduce failure.%在企业经营失败的研究方面，缺乏系统观导致主流研究的科学性和有效服务于实践的能力遭到严重挑战。针对这一问题，本文引入系统论思想，将企业看作一个由存量和流量构成的系统，通过对系统存量与流量间关系的分析，结合考虑资金融通对系统的影响，推衍出企业经营失败的形成机理。在此基础上，以系统视角建立企业经营失败的四象限财务预警方法，帮助企业及时发现失败预兆，完善管理、减少失败。