闽江河口湿地自然保护区及其周边景观动态变化及预测研究

摘要

在遥感和地理信息系统的支持下,通过解译2003年和2013年两个时期的遥感影像,获取闽江河口湿地自然保护区及周边区域的土地景观类型转化数据,确定相应的转移概率矩阵,应用马尔科夫模型模拟研究区域土地景观演变情况.并选取合适的景观格局指数,对闽江河口湿地自然保护区及周边区域的景观格局变化和驱动力进行研究和分析.结果表明:2003~2023年间,随着人类活动强度的增加,闽江河口湿地自然保护区内自然斑块减少,人工斑块增多,景观趋于破碎化、复杂化.海岸线侵蚀、城市扩张、政策导向等是闽江河口湿地及周边区域景观格局变化的主要驱动因素.%Under the support of RS and GIS, we acquired the landscape type of Minjiang Estuary Wetland Nature Reserve(MEWNR) and surrounding area through interpreting two periods of remote sensing images in 2003 and 2013.The Markov model and corresponding transition probability matrix were used to simulate evolution of landscape in study area.The landscape pattern changes and driving forces of MEWNR and its surroundings were studied and analyzed by selecting appropriate landscape pattern indexes.The results showed that the natural patches in the MEWNR were reduced while the artificial patches were increased due to the increase of human activity and the landscape tended to be fragmented and complicated in 2003~2023.Shoreline erosion, urban expansion and policy factors are the main driving forces for the changes of landscape pattern in MEWNR and its surrounding areas.