基于ARMA模型的光伏电站出力预测

摘要

目前光伏发电站容量的不断扩大,光伏发电站并网后其功率的变化具有不确定性,因此有必要对光伏电站的出力进行预测.本文建立了一种基于ARMA模型的光伏电站预测模型.结合历史发电量数据和气象因素,分别使用ARMA模型和马尔可夫链模型对光伏电站的出力进行预测,并进行了两者的比较.大量的数据表明,ARMA预测模型有较高的精度,能够满足实际工程的应用要求.%Because the capacity of photovoltaic power stations are becoming increasingly large and the net change in PV power station has uncertainty, it is necessary to predict the output of PV power station. This paper presents a method based on ARMA time series forecasting model PV power station. Combining the historical generation data and meteorological factors, this paper will use the ARMA model and the Markov chain model to predict the output of PV power station, and compare their accuracy. The results show that ARMA forecasting model has high accuracy, and it can satisfy the practical engineering applications.