基于智慧能源视角影响北京市电力需求的灰色关联分析

摘要

With increasingly prominent of energy and environmental problems,energy reform is gradually advancing.Electric demand analysis is an important part in energy reform.There are various factors has influence on power demand change.It is very important to analysis future trends and influence of those factors.Grey correlation analysis is used to analyze main factors related to power demand in Beijing.From collected data in years 2002-2014,several indexes based on economic,social,scientific and cultural levelare selected to calculate absolute,relative and comprehensive correlation degree among impact factors and power consumption in whole society.The results show that compared with economic,social and cultural factors,science and technology has the most significant impact on power consumption.%电力需求变化受各种因素的影响,对于智慧能源建设需要深入分析各种因素的未来趋势及对用电需求的影响.运用灰色关联方法对影响北京市用电需求量的宏观因素进行了分析,选取可以反映北京市经济、社会、科学、文化水平的指标,利用2002-2014年的年度数据计算影响因素与全社会用电量之间的绝对关联度、相对关联以及综合关联度,并进行排序分析.结果表明:相比经济、社会、文化因素,科技因素与社会用电需求的关系最为显著.