基于蚁狮优化GM(1,1)模型的北京市电力需求预测

摘要

北京社会经济发展快速变化,由于影响电力需求因素具有很强的不确定性,故利用蚁狮优化的GM(1, 1)模型对北京市电力需求进行预测,在避免遗漏重要影响因素以及各因素发展水平预测偏差的前提下,提高了 GM(1,1)模型的适应性.预测模型通过了三种检验,并对2017-2020年的北京市电力需求进行预测.结果显示2020年全社会用电量将到的1 245.6亿kW·h,年均增长50～60亿kW·h.%Beijing's rapid socio-economic development has a great impact on the power demand. Therefore, in this paper, the ant lion optimized GM(1, 1) model is used to predict the electricity demand in Beijing. Improve the adaptability of GM (1, 1) model under the premise of avoiding the omission of the important influencing factors and the forecasting deviation of the factors. The forecasting model passes three tests and forecasts Beijing's electricity demand for 2017-2020. The results show that the total social electricity consumption in 2020 will reach 1245. 6 billion kwh, with an average annual growth of 50～60 billion kwh.