考虑风速动态时空关系的风电功率预测

摘要

Due to the intermittent and fluctuant features of wind power, large scale grid integration of wind power brings a severe challenge to the safe operation of electric power system.The accurate prediction of wind output power can provide an important reference and solid support for the control and operation of the power grid.Using the NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction)data as input, the wind farm local effect and the influence on low field caused by wind direction change are analyzed, and meanwhile, the local effect model of wind farm and the terrain identification model considering wind direction are also discussed in this paper.The physical process of air flow is simulated by the proposed model, and the goals of realizing the correction of NWP data and improving the prediction accuracy are achieved.Then, the distribution characteristics of wind speed in the wind turbine are studied based on three aspects: space, time and dynamic change.After that, a wind speed model is put forward.Application results in an actual wind farm show that the proposed method is effective.%风电间歇性和波动性强的特点使风电并网时给电力系统带来很大的安全风险,准确的风电功率预测可以有效提高电网安全运行特性.考虑风速动态关系的风电功率预测以数值天气预报(Numerical Weather Prediction,NWP)数据作为输入,分析了风电场局地效应和风向变化对流场的影响,建立了风电场局地效应模型及考虑风向影响的地形识别模型,通过模型对气流变化的物理过程进行解析求解,实现网格化NWP数据的修正,从而提高风速预报和风电功率预测的精度.最后,采用河北省某风场数据对风速和风电功率进行了预测,结果表明,所提出的预测方法能取得较为理想的预测效果.