系统处于健康、亚健康、风险状态的概率统称为健康性指标,健康性指标比传统的失负荷概率指标包含更多的确定性信息,因此它能更好地指导系统运行.传统计算健康性指标的方法为状态枚举法,当系统规模变大或系统负荷曲线不规则时用枚举法计算健康性指标极为费时费力.根据条件概率的思想,提出了一种计算系统健康性指标的新方法,该方法不仅能快速计算出恒定负荷时系统的健康性指标,而且能快速处理负荷曲线不规则的系统.%Probabilities of the healthy,marginal and at risk states of a system are collectively known as well-being indices,which contain more deterministic information than conventional loss of load probability and are more useful for system operation. Contingency enumeration method,which is used to calculate well-being indices,becomes very time consuming and cumbersome when applies to a system with many generating units,especially to those systems with irregular load curves. A novel method to calculate well-being indices of large-scale generation system by using conditional probability is presented. It figures out easily the well-being indices of system with constant load and system with irregular load curve.
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