计及水流补偿风险的梯级水电发电权投标决策模型

摘要

如何在天然来水不确定性引发的水流补偿风险背景下进行投标决策,是梯级水电参与发电权交易必须要考虑的问题.为此,提出了计及水流补偿风险的梯级水电发电权投标决策模型.在明晰水流补偿风险对梯级水电投标决策影响的基础上,基于梯级电站间彼此互动的复杂系统特性,利用元胞自动机为上、下游水电站联合而成的梯级共同体建模;根据是否具有水流补偿功能,将共同体内的上、下游电站分别视为龙头元胞、基础元胞,将补偿水流量、发电权申报量、价格作为各相关元胞的状态,并基于风险管控思想和水力发电等原理,分别建立龙头元胞和基础元胞的状态及状态转换决策模型,进而实现水流补偿风险与电站出力的关联;以最大化梯级共同体的申报量为目标,上、下游元胞按照邻域关系互动,利用水力发电等原理,建立梯级共同体参与发电权交易的协同投标决策模型.%Approaches to make bidding decisions under water flow compensation risks caused by the uncertainty of natural inflow represent a necessary problem that should be considered for the cascade hydropower taking part in PGRT(Power Generation Rights Trading).Motivated by this,the bidding decision model of cascade hydropower taking part in PGRT considering compensation risks is proposed.The impacts on PGRT caused by compensation risks are analyzed.Then,the model of CC (Cascade Community) considering complex system characteristics of interaction between cascade hydropower stations is illustrated based on cellular automata theory.According to the water flow compensation function,the upstream and downstream stations in CC are divided into the leading and basic cells.The quantity of compensating water,quantity of power generation fights bidding and price are selected as the attributes of the cells.Then,the state models and state transition models of leading and basic cells are constructed based on the principles of risk management and hydropower generation theory,respectively.Consequently,the relationship between the compensation risks and the output of CC is established.To maximize the bid quantity of CC,the upstream and downstream cells interact with each other according to neighborhood relationships,and the bidding decision model of CC is proposed based on the principles of hydropower generation and other factors.