可持续发展定量评价方法研究是当前可持续发展研究的前沿和热点.生态足迹分析模型是通过对区域人口对自然利用程度的测度,确定区域的发展是否处于生态承载力范围之内.运用生态足迹理论和计算方法,采用2004-2007年东源县统计年鉴、历年年初土地面积、2002世界粮农组织(FAO)和世界自然基金会(WWF)的相关数据,对重点饮用水源地--东源县14 a(1994-2007年)来人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力进行实证计算和分析.结果表明:2007年的东源县人均生态足迹需求为0.856 1 hm~2·cap~(-1),而实际人均生态空间面积(均衡承载力面积)为1.641 8 hm~2·cap~(-1),人均生态盈余为0.588 7hm~2·cap~(-1).14 a来东源县的生态承载力总体上几乎都是大于生态需求(除了1995年、1996年生态需求略大于生态供给外),处于生态盈余状态且生态盈余呈现稳中增长的趋势,区域生态系统处于一种相对可持续状态.其中,林地生态承载量最大,生态盈余最多,呈现逐年减少的态势;耕地生态承载量次之,生态足迹最大,生态赤字大,生态压力严重;水域和草地的生态压力逐年增大.%Study of measuring sustainable development is the hotspot and foreland of study in sustainable development. The eco-footprint analysis(EFA) is a new model for sustainable development evaluation based on measuring quantitatively nature re-sources utilization, whether the development of region stays within the eco-carrying capacity or not is judged. Based on the theories and the calculation method of the eco-footprint, adopting for related data of Statistical Yearbook of Dongyuan county, the land use area of beginning year, food agriculture in world organizations(FAO, 2002) and natural foundation(WWF) in world, taking Dong yuan county in Guangdong province as an example, that is the important source area of drinking water protection, the eco-footprints of this county from 1994 to 2007 were calculated and analyzed. The conclusions have been summarized: In 2007, the ecological footprint demand of Dongyuan county is 0.856 1 hm~2·cap~(-1), while the ecological footprint supply is 1.641 8 hm~2·cap~(-1), the ecological surplus is 0.588 7 hm~2·cap~(-1). The ecological footprint surplus of Dongyuan county's is respectively 0.799 7 hm~2·cap~(-1) and 0.588 68 hm~2·cap~(-1) in 1994 and 2007. The per capita ecological surplus from 1994 to 2007 reveals that the relationship between man and land is more harmonious and ecology system of Dong yuan county get along with sustainable relatively.
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