耦合流域模型及在中国环境规划与管理中的应用进展

摘要

Watershed environmental models were very important tools for studying water blackening and smell, eutrophication and many other problem of water pollution. Watershed environmental models comprised of pollution load models, water quality models, and aquatic-land coupling models, either mechanistic or empirical. Mechanistic models focus on characterizing hydrodynamics and transformation, and calibrating parameter through measured data of localization, empirical models focus on statistical rule for large quantities of data. Models comprehensively qualified the internal complex pollution process within entire watershed system. Pollution load models usually estimated load from pollution sources, and calculated load of pollutant discharged into rivers. Water quality models often simulated transporting and degrading processes of several pollutants in rivers, lakes, etc. Conventionally, watershed models have been widely used to evaluate non-point source pollution and analyze water quality impacted by environmental management strategies, such as emission trading. Nowadays models have been further expanded to couple with economic model for designing and optimizing environmental policy. In this paper, the coupling model of water quantity and water quality were applicated in water resource management and water environment management policy, which including water resource allocation, effect of emission trading, trade-off in cost & benefit analysis were reviewed. Finally, development and prospect of watershed environmental models were carried out. We should compare environmental impact by both the target strategy and environmental capacity strategy, which will be more meaningful. Uncertainty of model problems may also need emphasized if we continue to dig deep. Most of the researchers always set the approach of optimizing as a deterministic situation, actually, far from it. Uncertainty and risk associated with the quantification and prediction of waterborne pollutant loads and abatement effects. It may be very important practical significant to enhance the effectiveness of scientific environment planning and management.%流域水环境模型是研究流域水体黑臭、水体富营养化和水质超标问题的重要工具，流域水环境模型从概念上可以分为（半）机理模型和经验型模型，前者通过方程式和函数关系来刻画流域水动力和迁移转化规律，并通过实测数据校准获取本土化的参数系数，后者力图寻求大数据量间的统计学规律。按照模拟对象的不同，流域水环境模型还可以划分为陆域的污染负荷模拟模型、水域的受纳水体模拟模型，以及水-陆耦合模拟模型。模型对整个流域系统及其内部发生的复杂地球化学过程进行定量化描述，污染负荷模型一般用来估算点源及非点源产生的污染负荷量，并计算出进入河道的污染负荷量，作为受纳水体模型的污染源边界输入条件；受纳水体模型一般用来模拟沉积物或污染物在河流、湖泊、水库、河口、沿海等水体中的运动和衰减转化过程，是水质预测、评价、分析的重要工具。传统的流域模型多用评价自然活动以及人类活动对水环境造成的影响，而当前越来越多的学者将水环境模型与经济学模型进行耦合，开展基于水环境模型的环境政策设计和优化研究。文章从系统控制的视角，主要总结了水量水质耦合流域模型在水资源管理政策、水环境管理政策中的应用，例如水资源有效分配、排污交易产生的水环境影响、基于成本-效益的水污染控制策略优化等。在此基础上文章对流域水环境模型的发展方向和应用前景进行了的展望，流域水环境容量控制策略、目标总量控制策略的水环境影响比较分析以及水环境模型的不确定性研究将是未来关注的重点所在，尤其不确定性问题经常存在于水污染物产排放预测和水环境质量模拟预测过程中，对于提升环境规划与管理的科学性、有效性具有十分重要的现实意义。