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2000-2014年中国区域生态效率测度及其时空差异

         

摘要

By using the provincial panel data of China, Chinese eco-efficiency from 2000 to 2014 was measured by the method of Super-efficiency DEA model. Based on the results, the research analyzed the differences of regional eco-efficiency from the temporal and spatial dimension which supported for the improvement of Chinese eco-efficiency and promotion of regional green development. By adding the PM2.5 index to the traditional evaluation indices of eco-efficiency, the values of eco-efficiency became more scientific and effective. Introducing the model of Malmquist index, Chinese TFP of eco-efficiency was divided and found the reasons of the differences from temporal aspect. Then, we used the method of spatial autocorrelation to analyze the spatial agglomeration characters of eco-efficiency from spatial aspect. Finally, Theil index was applied to explore the spatial difference of eco-efficiency more. The final results indicated: (1) From 2000 to 2006, Chinese eco-efficiency decreased to 0.570 from 0.769; from 2007 to 2014, Chinese eco-efficiency increased from 0.573 to 0.920. It meaned that the variation trend of Chinese eco-efficiency was basically consistent with the U-shaped curve. That was the same with eastern, central and western of China, but the year of minimum eco-efficiency was different. Considering from provincial view, the eco-efficiency of Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Beijing, Shanghai ranked high from 2000 to 2014 and the value was 1.002, 0.993 and 0.804 accordingly. The eco-efficiency of Ningxia, Qinghai and Guizhou ranked low and the value was 0.391, 0.445 and 0.514 accordingly. (2) From the temporal dimension, the annual TFP of Chinese eco-efficiency was 6.24% which was dominated by the technical progress and the value was 7.50%. The TFP of Inner Mongolia, Beijing, Shanghai ranked the top and Guangxi, Hunan, Ningxia ranked the end among all the provinces. (3) From the spatial dimension, Chinese eco-efficiency showed no significant of global spatial autocorrelation in the most years of 2000 to 2014. However, the Moran's I Scatter plot displayed it existed local spatial autocorrelation of Chinese eco-efficiency. And (4) it was concluded that the gap of regional Chinese eco-efficiency between provincial regions showed the decline trend. Theil index of eco-efficiency decreased to 0.2116 from 0.2847. The total difference of eco-efficiency was led by the inter-region difference which took the proportion of 62.85%~71.83%. And the Theil index of Eastern China made most contribution to the inter-region difference.%利用中国省域的面板数据,使用超效率方法对中国2000—2014年区域生态效率进行了测度.基于测度结果,从时间与空间两个视角分析了区域生态效率产生差异的原因,为中国生态效率的改善以及区域绿色发展提供了决策依据.在传统的生态效率评价指标体系中加入PM2.5数据,使得生态效率测度的结果更具有科学性和有效性.引入Malmquist指数模型并将生态效率 TFP 进行分解,从时间尺度上分析中国生态效率产生差异的原因.采用全局空间自相关分析中国区域生态效率,从空间尺度上识别中国区域生态效率的空间集聚特征.最后应用泰尔指数进一步分析生态效率产生差异的空间原因.研究结果表明,(1)2000—2006年,中国生态效率由0.769下降至0.570;2007—2014年,生态效率由0.573上升至0.920,呈现U型曲线.东中西部地区生态效率变化趋势也基本符合U型曲线,但生态效率达到最低值的年份有所差异.2000—2014年,内蒙古、广东、北京、上海年均生态效率位于前列,其值分别为1.002、0.993、0.833和0.804;宁夏、青海、贵州最低,生态效率分别为0.391、0.445和0.514.(2)从时间维度来看,中国生态效率TFP年均值为6.24%,主要由技术进步主导,技术进步年均达到7.50%.各区域中,内蒙古、北京、上海生态效率 TFP 最高,广西、湖南、宁夏最低.(3)从空间维度来看,2000—2014年,中国生态效率在大多数年份不存在显著的全局空间自相关,而Moran's I散点图表明局部地区存在空间自相关.(4)中国区域生态效率空间差异总体上呈现缩小的趋势,泰尔指数由2000年的0.2847下降至0.2116.总差异产生的原因主要来自于区域内差异,它占据总差异的62.85%~71.83%,而区域内的差异中,东部地区的贡献率最大.

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