长三角地区能源消耗与碳排放的实证研究--基于系统动力学模型

摘要

Based on a system dynamics model,energy consumption and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region have been modeled and simulated in this paper,and the trend of carbon emissions in this region has been dynamically pre⁃dicted with the Vensim software. The results show that it is feasible to solve the problem of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region using the system dynamics model,and the total carbon emissions in this region will reach 2,951,500,000 tons by the year of 2030. In addtion,on the basis of the sensitivity analysis results,this paper puts forward some energy sav⁃ing proposals,which provide a reference value for the sustainable development of the Yangtze River Delta region.%文章基于系统动力学模型，对长三角地区的能源消耗与碳排放进行了建模与仿真，利用Vensim软件动态模拟了该地区未来的碳排放发展趋势。结果表明，利用系统动力学模型解决长三角地区的碳减排是可行的，且到2030年，该地区的碳排放量将达到295150万吨。此外，文章还依据敏感性分析结果，有针对性地提出了相应的节能减排建议，从而为长三角地区的可持续发展提供了一定的参考价值。