A system dynamics model for urban transport congestion, energy consumption, and CO2 emission

摘要

With the rapid urbanization in recent ten years,the urban transport sector is greatly responsible for the increase in energy consumption and CO2 emission in China.In this paper,we construct an urban system dynamics model,including the conventional public transport system,the rail transportation system and the private transport system,and analyze the impacts of public transport system on road congestion,energy consumption and CO2 emission,even on a city's long-term development.Subsequently,we take Beijing city as a case and find that the superabundance of private cars has been the major cause of road congestion and energy consumption.Furthermore,under different scenarios of subsidies and the length of bus lanes,we suggest several demand management policies,such as improving the level of public transport service,and advocating “public transport” on behalf of “private cars”,to be implemented to control road congestion,conserve energy consumption,and promote the urban sustainable development.