地震预测预报研究议程的演变:文献计量分析的启示

摘要

In this paper, using Web of Science core database as the data resource, and with CiteSpace as the analysis tool, three issues are discussed based on bibiliometrics, which are ① the development process of earthquake forecast/prediction, from January 1, 1960 to December 31, 2017, ② the decade evolution of research agenda from January 1, 1968 to December 31, 2017, and ③ the main research agenda of earthquake forecast/prediction from January 1, 2008 to September 1, 2018. These analyses could provide references for research on earthquake forecast/prediction and strageties. Our results show that the processes of research on earthquake forecast/prediction have been in dynamic development. Especially, research agenda in each period of time gradually have more diversified growing trend, and tend towards more in-depth and detailed study stage promoted by important events.%本文以Web of Science核心合集为文献源,分别以1960年1月1日至2017年12月31日、1968年1月1日至2017年12月31日、2008年1月1日至2018年9月1日三个时间段的科学文献为分析对象,借助CiteSpace软件,讨论了地震预测预报研究的发展进程,以10年为单位的研究议程的演变,以及汶川地震以来地震预测预报研究的主要领域,试图对地震预测预报研究以及相关领域发展战略研究提供一定的参考.结果显示,地震预测预报相关科技进程一直处在动态的发展中,在重大事件的推动下,每一个时间段中呈现不同的且趋向于多样化的发展趋势,同时愈来愈向着多种方法并重的更加深入和精细的阶段发展.