基于事实型数据的技术生命周期判断方法综述

摘要

了解技术所处的生命周期，跟踪技术发展，是技术决策者的主要决策依据，也是整个技术发展变革中有力的事实支撑。文章从新的角度对技术生命周期各阶段进行划分，分析了科技论文和专利两大科研产出事实型数据的在各阶段的表现；随后归纳了常用的技术生命周期判断方法，分析各个方法的优缺点，并形成系统的方法体系。%It's the main basis for decision making that understanding technology's life cycle and tracking technology development, and it's also the strong factual support in the entire technology process. The author introduces the phases of Technology Life Cycle from a new point of view, and analyses the performance of paper and patent at every stage as two kinds of factual data. Then, the article concludes the methods to distinguish the phases of TLC to form a method system, and summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of each method in the end.