基于三角模糊树的油气管线爆炸事故的 FTA 分析

摘要

Site data of the pipeline explosion is difficult to collect, the probability of an accident is difficult to determine. In this paper, the triangular fuzzy number theory in fuzzy evaluation method was used to describe the probability of pipeline explosion to determine the fuzzy interval of the top event. In order to determine the combination mode to cause the accident, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA analysis) and Boolean algebra method were used to obtain the minimal cut set of fault tree. Then the intermediate value method was used to determine the structural importance of basic events to cause the accident; through analyzing the structural importance of basic events, the sequence of the top events - important factors in the accident was determined.%管道爆炸的现场数据难以收集整理，事故发生的概率难以确定。引入模糊评价方法中的三角模糊理论来描述难以计算的管道爆炸事故的概率，确定顶上事件的模糊概率区间；为了确定引起事故发生的组合模式，通过 Fault Tree Analysis（事故树）简称 FTA 分析法，应用 Boolean algebra method（布尔代数法）求得事故树的最小割集；通过中间值法的应用，确定各个引起事故的基本事件的结构重要度，通过对各个基本事件的结构重要度的整理，确定影响顶上事件-事故发生的重要因素的先后顺序，可以对排列靠前的影响较重的因素进行改善。