基于关联规则的自然灾害预测系统

摘要

建立自然灾害预测模型,对自然灾害进行预测和分析,有利于提升防灾减灾的技术水平.基于关联规则和Web文本挖掘技术提出自然灾害预测系统的设计方案及实现方法.该系统利用成熟开源的爬虫框架从权威的灾害信息发布平台中定向抓取非结构化的自然灾害信息,通过中文分词技术进行数据清理将其整理成结构化的自然灾害数据库,并利用改进的关联规则算法从中挖掘出自然灾害事件的关联规则,进而可通过实时监控关联规则的前端信息,实现对自然灾害事件的预测.试运行结果表明该系统能有效挖掘出自然灾害信息的关联规则,并具有较高置信度.%The establishment of natural disaster prediction model to predict and analyze the occurrence of natural disasters is conducive to enhance the technical level of disaster prevention and mitigation. We present a design and implementation of natural disaster forecasting system based on association rules and the Web text mining technology. The system uses a mature open source crawler framework to capture the unstructured natural disaster information from the authoritative disaster information release platforms. By using the Chinese word segmentation technique the data are cleaned up and organized into a structured natural disaster database, and mining association rules of natural disaster events are worked out from improved association rule algorithm. And then by monitoring the front-end information of association rules in real time, the prediction of natural disasters can be achieved. Experimental results show that the system can effectively mine the association rules of natural disaster information with high confidence.