在剖析旅游产业集聚与旅游环境承载力关联作用的基础上，对沿海地区旅游产业集聚程度及旅游环境承载力综合指数进行测度，揭示二者的动态变化与空间差异特征；进而对2001－2012年承载能力与集聚程度指数的时间序列数据进行计量检验，构建两个变量的向量自回归模型（ VAR），分析沿海地区旅游产业集聚程度与旅游环境承载力水平之间的动态效应关系。研究表明：旅游产业集聚与旅游环境承载力存在长期稳定的相关性；从二者动态关系变化上看，在特定空间和时间范围内的旅游环境承载力对旅游产业集聚发展产生了限制作用和负向影响；随着规模效应、成本效应与竞争优势的发挥，旅游产业集聚会推动区域旅游环境承载水平的提升，承载力对集聚的影响转化为正向影响；同时旅游产业集聚对旅游环境承载力变化的贡献水平远大于旅游环境承载力对集聚变化的贡献水平。%On the basis of analyzing related mechanism of tourism industrial agglomeration and carrying capacity, the pa-per measures tourism industrial concentration degree and tourism environment carrying capacity index in coastal regions to reveal the characteristics of dynamic change and space difference between them;then it tests the time series data of carry-ing capacity and concentration degree index from 2001 to 2012 and builds vector auto-regressive model ( VAR) to ana-lyze the dynamic effect between tourism industrial concentration degree and tourism environment carrying capacity index in coastal regions.The results show that:there is long-term stable relationship between them;carrying capacity has neg-ative impact on tourism industry agglomeration, but it will be transformed into positive influence alongside regional tourism carrying capacity ascension by the scale effect, cost effect and competitive advantage;the industry agglomeration′s contribution to the change of carrying capacity is greater than the carrying capacity′s contribution to the change of indus-try agglomeration.
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